Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Within the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.